Why We Have Such Bad Data about the MA Election
Jon Cohen of the Washington Post nails it:
Only one of Monday’s five publicly released Massachusetts Senate polls asked prospective voters anything beyond their ballot preference, opinion of the candidates and a few demographics.
…Good survey research clarifies, providing data about “why” prospective voters make choices, both in terms of whether they will vote and how they will cast their ballots. Producing a solitary horse-race number is essentially a publicity stunt. That number may end up hitting the mark, but without any explanatory information behind it, it’s of no value to understanding the election.