A Majority Likes the Public Option, but Not the Opt-Out Provision?
A new CNN poll asked:
Now thinking specifically about the health insurance plans available to most Americans, would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private health insurance companies?
A majority, 56%, favored the public option when described that way; 42% were opposed.
Then CNN asked:
Would you favor or oppose that plan if state governments were able to decide that the public health insurance option administered by the federal government would not apply to all people living in those states?
Then a vast majority, 66%, were opposed to the plan, and only 28% were in favor.
That surprised me because the public-option-with-the-opt-out has always been presented as a sort kinder, gentler public option that would appeal to more people — or at least to more members of Congress. Perhaps the CNN question wording doesn’t do it justice. I’m not well-versed enough on the opt-out to say, nor have I seen other polls on this specific provision.
Comments
The latter wording makes it sound like the state governments could partition their populations into those with the option and those without.
Needless to say, that doesn’t articulate the “opt-out” clause.
538 may have better data analysis on this.
Posted by: Dave G | November 18, 2009 12:11 PM
These are questions where cross-tabs are needed, at the least. Who likes the public option but does not like the opt-out? I wonder if CNN would release the cross-tabls to these questions. Would help illuminate a lot.
Dave G’s point falls into a broader point. What do voters know about health care legislation? Do they understand what an “opt-out” provision is, what it means and how it would work? Unlikely. So it’s still an open question to me what exactly that second questions is measuring.
Posted by: Brian Arbour | November 18, 2009 12:24 PM
I agree with both of the above comments: the questions are confusing and one would like to see the cross tabs. But I would add that “like the public option, hate the opt-out” is a perfectly sensible position for many people. If you think you would benefit from the public option but live in a state that might opt out, what’s to like about the opt out? On the other hand, opposition to the public option is based on ideological and perhaps fiscal concerns that are not assuaged by the opt out. Opponents are likely to think that an opt out only means that their taxes will pay for someone else’s public plan (even if that’s not true).
Posted by: Ken Schultz | November 18, 2009 03:35 PM
I had a similar thought to Dave’s. The question wording on the opt-out is less than clear.
Having said that, of course, the opt-out was designed to appeal to more Senators, not more people or their Representatives.
Posted by: MSS | November 18, 2009 04:04 PM
A 538 lunchtime search yields positive/interesting results!
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/how-to-poll-on-public-option.html
How to Poll on the Public Option
1. Make clear that the ‘public option’ refers unambiguously to a type of health insurance, and not the actual provision of health care services by the government.
2. Make clear that by “public”, you mean “government”.
3. Avoid using the term ‘Medicare’ when referring to the public option.
4. Make clear that the public option is, in fact, an option, and that private insurance is also an option.
5. Ask in clear and unambiguous terms whether the respondent supports the public option — not how important they think it is.
Posted by: Dave G | November 18, 2009 04:07 PM
I agree with all of the above comments on the potential frailties of this second question. (Dave G: The 538 link is an oldie-but-goodie. Unfortunately, it is not about polling on the opt-out provision.)
I lean towards Ken’s view, however. It seems to me that even a “better” question would suggest that some significant fraction of people don’t want states to opt out of a program that they support. The question is whether those people outnumber anyone who would support a public option with the opt-out provision.
Posted by: John Sides | November 18, 2009 08:06 PM