Easy money: Bet on the outcome of the Virginia gubernatorial race
Wanna make some easy money? Call your favorite bookie and get your money down — wager the mortgage if need be — on the outcome of this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race. It looks like a sure thing.
Maybe you’re hesitant to place a bet on this race because you don’t follow Virginia politics. Don’t worry. Here’s a little help to get you started.
Virginia’s governors are term-limited.One four-year term and they’re out the door. So you needn’t worry about the incumbency factor.
Virginia holds its gubernatorial elections in odd-numbered years (2009, 2005, 2001, …), presumably minimizing the effect of national-level trends. So don’t worry about coattails.
Virginia’s last two governors have been Democrats (Tim Kaine and Mark Warner).
This year’s candidates are Creigh Deeds (Democrat) and Bob McDonnell (Republican). McDonnell currently leads in the polls, but Deeds has gained ground.
Now, armed with all that information, are you ready to pick a winner?
Still not ready? Well, then, here’s one final piece of information, as provided by the dean of Virginia politics watchers, Larry Sabato.
According to Sabato, in the last eight gubernatorial elections, without a single exception, Virginians have elected the candidate of the party that does NOT occupy the White House.
I think eight out of eight should be good enough even for a cautious type like you. Let’s see now: Obama’s a Democrat, so Bob McDonnell, the Republican, will be the next governor of Virginia. You can count on it.
[Hat tip to Jim Todd]
Comments
of course, before 2008 only 2 sitting US Senators had ever been elected president, Warren Hardin and JFK. That one went out the door with the primaries, since both major party candidates were sitting Senators.
And of course a Black man could never win a Southern state, and no Dem had carried VA or IN since 1964. Let’s see - that is more than 11 Virginia governor elections ago . . .
if that[’s how you want to bet, let me open a casino. I will only need you as a customer to be able to retire.
Posted by: teacherken | September 19, 2009 07:10 PM
Teacherken:
Calling this election outcome a sure thing based on an odd pattern from the last several elections was meant to be facetious, so, no, I wouldn’t base a bet on such “evidence.”
However, the pattern is interesting to think about.
Also, if you’d like a chance to take some of The Vaunted Sigelman Familly Fortune, I’ll bet you on who’s going to win this election. I’ll take McDonnell, you take Deeds. The wager will be for five cents.
By the way, this morning’s WASHINGTON POST has polling data that shows that McDonnell’s early 14-point lead has now fallen to five points. He seems to have the momentum. So take the bet — it looks like a sure thing.
Posted by: Lee Sigelman | September 20, 2009 10:32 AM