Posted by Andrew Gelman on May 29, 2009 12:15 AM|Permalink
Comments
Very interesting. I have two thoughts.
1. Given the large proportion of the Hispanic vote made up by Cuban-Americans in Florida, it would seem that Republicans are less likely to lose as much of the Hispanic vote there as they would in other states. This supports your initial conclusion that losing the Hispanic vote wouldn’t matter too much for Republicans, at least at the presidential level.
2. However, I think the real danger for Republicans in losing the Hispanic vote comes as the Hispanic population grows and spreads. If the Hispanics population continues to grow in Texas, it could have real implications for Republican presidential candidates given that Texas is the only large state (in terms of electoral votes) that is relatively safe for the GOP.
Re: Jim’s #2 & Texas … thus the Voter ID dustup. It boggles my mind that the Repubs managed to lose that one. I spent the entire semester telling my class it was a foregone conclusion.
Comments
Very interesting. I have two thoughts.
1. Given the large proportion of the Hispanic vote made up by Cuban-Americans in Florida, it would seem that Republicans are less likely to lose as much of the Hispanic vote there as they would in other states. This supports your initial conclusion that losing the Hispanic vote wouldn’t matter too much for Republicans, at least at the presidential level.
2. However, I think the real danger for Republicans in losing the Hispanic vote comes as the Hispanic population grows and spreads. If the Hispanics population continues to grow in Texas, it could have real implications for Republican presidential candidates given that Texas is the only large state (in terms of electoral votes) that is relatively safe for the GOP.
Posted by: Jim Curry | May 29, 2009 10:51 AM
Re: Jim’s #2 & Texas … thus the Voter ID dustup. It boggles my mind that the Repubs managed to lose that one. I spent the entire semester telling my class it was a foregone conclusion.
Posted by: Joel | May 29, 2009 12:14 PM