The Bush/Truman analogy: Just for the record, I nailed it back in 2005
In May 2005, I wrote:
After the 2004 election I had this idea that Bush’s victory over Kerry is analogous to Truman’s over Dewey in 1948. . . . A key issue in the analogy, I suppose, is the implicit suggestion that Bush in 2005-2008, like Truman in 1949-1952, could see a continuing decline in approval followed by a loss in his party’s control of Congress.
Bush’s popularity has sometimes been compared to Nixon’s, but I think Truman’s a better comparison because it is gradual rather than the result of a single scandal.
Comments
Bush’s victory in 2004, unlike Truman’s in 1948, was not really an upset. Most of the late polls did show Bush slightly ahead. This is what annoyed me in 2008 when McCain supporters dismissed Obama’s lead in the polls by saying that “Kerry was ahead too.” No he wasn’t! Oh, he did have a slight lead in some polls at some times, but there were more
polls favoring Bush, especailly final pre-election polls (as distinguished from the infamous exit poll).
Posted by: David T | January 9, 2009 01:36 PM