Words of (Undergraduate) Wisdom
I teach a political participation course, and when the course overlaps with a presidential election, I have the students form into small groups, where they analyze all the available data out there, and make a prediction. All the groups have Obama winning the election (see plot below). On the low end, Group 4 has Obama winning only 291 electoral votes, and on the high end, Group 7 has Obama winning 353 votes. Most of the groups have Obama winning in the low 300s and McCain in the low 200s. I guess we’ll see on election night which group is the closest to the actual outcome (there’s some extra credit points riding on this).
Comments
I have my own money on it! Out here at CSUF, if Steve Stambough’s class beats mine in predicting 20 elections (10 states for Prez, 10 Senate elections, with the EC total as a tie-breaker), I have to buy them pizza.
For what it’s worth, my section went with 322, and Stambough’s went 311.
I’m leaning closer to 344 or 375.
Posted by: Matt Jarvis | October 30, 2008 03:21 PM
My freshmen had an average prediction of Obama getting 301 EVs. I’m going with 318, myself.
Posted by: Seth Masket | October 30, 2008 04:39 PM
FWIW, I went with 338 in our department’s pool, and I believe that I’m on the low end of the distribution.
Posted by: Jeff Lazarus | October 30, 2008 06:31 PM
FWIW, I went with 338 in our department’s pool, and I believe that I’m on the low end of the distribution.
Posted by: Jeff Lazarus | October 30, 2008 06:31 PM
Good job, having them work in groups. Excellent teaching strategy!
Posted by: Andrew![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.themonkeycage.org/nav-commenters.gif)
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October 31, 2008 02:07 AM
I’m going with 322 - 216.
Posted by: King Politics | November 1, 2008 06:38 PM