The Effect of Oprah's Endorsement
Candidates in major political contests are commonly endorsed by other politicians, interest groups and celebrities. Prior to the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary, Barack Obama was endorsed by Oprah Winfrey, a celebrity with a proven track record of influencing her fans’ commercial decisions. In this paper, we use geographic differences in subscriptions to O! – The Oprah Magazine and the sale of books Winfrey recommended as part of Oprah’s Book Club to assess whether her endorsement affected the Primary outcomes. We find her endorsement had a positive effect on the votes Obama received, increased the overall voter participation rate, and increased the number of contributions received by Obama. No connection is found between the measures of Oprah’s influence and Obama’s success in previous elections, nor with underlying local political preferences. Our results suggest that Winfrey’s endorsement was responsible for approximately additional 1,000,000 votes for Obama.
The paper is here.
[Hat tip to Marginal Revolution.]
Comments
Admittedly, I only the read the first few pages of the article, but I must say the findings are counterintuitive. Aren’t most of Oprah’s viewers white females, the same white females that overwhelmingly supported Clinton? Also, is endorsing a book the same as endorsing a political candidate - especially for president? Finally, how do we know these 1m Obama voters wouldn’t have voted for him anyway, especially when so many voters were undecided as they entered the voting booth?
Posted by: Black Political Analysis | August 5, 2008 10:39 AM
On the previous comment: If you look at table 2 on page 49 of the paper, you can see the demographics for O! Magazine. According to this table, 23% of readers are black, twice the percentage of African Americans in the overall population.
If nothing else, I certainly find this paper thought provoking. If the mathematical models hold up to scrutiny, the numbers are quite extraordinary. The research method is also very interesting.
Posted by: Sverre Midthjell | August 5, 2008 12:37 PM