Twelve Winning (or Maybe Not) Rules for Democratic Campaign Strategists
Political scientist extraordinaire Bob Erikson once argued that the Democrats persist in losing presidential elections because it is rational for them to do so. (See his article, “Why the Democrats Lose Presidential Elections: Toward a Theory of Optimal Loss,” PS: Political Science and Politics 22 (March, 1989), pp. 30-35). That’s the kind of sound thinking that underlies the primer on Democratic campaign strategy in 2008 that he just sent to me. I have secured his permission to reproduce it here. Thus, here, as a “Monkey Cage” exclusive, is a peek into the secret world of Democratic campaign strategy, as summarized in twelve rules.
Bob’s introduction to the twelve rules:
As an anguished Obama supporter watching his lead shrink in the polls, I asked a Democratic campaign consultant to offer reassurance. My informant said not to worry and offered the following set of twelve rules that all Democratic strategists internalize. Although these rules have been tried before and have consistently failed,my informant insists that with sufficient persistence in applying these rules, eventually a Democrat will win the White House — if not 2008, perhaps in 2012. Feeling relieved, I pass these rules on to you.
1. When the topic of foreign policy arises, change the subject. Do not talk about any aspect of foreign policy, no matter how badly the Republicans have messed it up. Voters think Republicans are strong and Democrats are weak on foreign policy, so for goodness sake never bring it up. Talking about foreign policy will only prime voters to vote Republican.
2. If a foreign policy crisis emerges and you absolutely cannot avoid addressing it, just mumble something about our need to consult our NATO allies and perhaps to takethe problem to the UN.
3. Do not address specific policy issues. Don’t you listen to talk radio? If you do, you’ll be aware that almost no one agrees with the Democrats on any policy issue. To emphasize policy positions only makes you lose votes. Keep it vague.
4. Admittedly, polls show people to be in overwhelming agreement with the Democrats on abortion (pro-choice, pro-Roe v. Wade) and gun control. So the Democrats don’t lose there. But wait! That must be why the Democrats have lost past elections. Most Americans agree with the Democrats on these issues, but the only ones who care to vote based on these issues are the pro-life and pro-gun proponents. So avoid these issues, too.
5. When Republicans attack your character, do not respond in kind. Instead, tell the people what upstanding patriots your Republican opponents are. That will shame the Republicans into no longer saying bad stuff about you. (It’s okay to threaten to respond to their negative ads, but never actually do it.)
6. Never take the offensive to challenge your Republican opponents. After all, they are popular. Attacking them will only offend voters and make them more eager to vote Republican than before.
7. When Republicans say you want to raise everybody’s taxes, do not respond! It doesn’t matter that your platform calls for taxes to be raised only for the wealthy and advocates a tax break for most Americans. Taxes are too confusing for ordinary voters to understand, and if you offer nuance voters will only become more convinced that you are eager to tax them.
8. This is not to say that Democrats don’t have issues. But choose them carefully. Target narrow parochial issues designed to win over specific states. For instance, condemn the trucking of nuclear waste to Yucca Flats. Someday that will lead to a Democrat actually carrying Nevada!
9. If your base insists that you attack your opponent, go ahead but tread carefully. Aim safely for the capillaries, not the arteries, lest your opponent strikes back with greater vigor. For instance, remind voters of an obscure scandal you can use to connect your opponent to some disgraced lobbyist by three degrees of separation.
10. Take the high road. Do not pander and tell people what the want to hear. Tell them what they need to hear. For instance, when people complain about the price of gas, do not talk about ways to ease their economic burden. Instead, expound on how wonderful life will be when we all live in central cities and ride the bus to work.
11. Do not forget the groups that brung you. Never venture a new position without considering the interests of the entrenched interests that support your party. For instance, before advocating any kind of education reforms, consider your obligation to the teachers’ unions.
12. As a Democrat, you have one issue that might work—Social Security! Polls show that this stuff is popular, so try to scare the elders by saying that the Republicans will take away their Social Security checks. With enough effort, the Democrats may someday win the senior citizen vote! Besides, advocating old-age pensions for all shows how forward looking the party can be.
Comments
It’s funny (and sad) because it’s true.
Posted by: Black Political Analysis | August 27, 2008 09:43 AM
All good except number 11. Do the Republicans consistently “forget the groups that brung” them? How often do they “venture a new position without considering the interests of the entrenched interests that support your party”? Republicans proudly tout the interests that make up that party, proclaiming their interests to be the same as the public interest. Democrats seem obsessed with showing “independence” from the interests that make up their party, suggesting that to side with their own supporters is just crass interest group politics. (The extend to which either side is hopelessly captured by their constituent interests is another matter, of course.) Being considerate to your own supporters is not a problem (which is what #11 suggests should be avoided.)
A small dissent from an otherwise hearty concurrence.
Posted by: David Kaib | August 27, 2008 10:42 AM
#11 is a problem when it stifles any reform policies. The Democrats were adrift on replies to Bush’s “No Child Left Behind” because they feared any reply that might draw the ire of NEA or AFT. Healthcare remains murky because reforms that might impact the SEIU negatively are non-starters.
It is not that these groups should be ignored, but that fear of their reaction should not act as a veto on policy proposals.
Posted by: smaug | August 27, 2008 12:23 PM
Smaug,
That’s an interesting point, but it’s not the same as #11. And you’re point doesn’t distinguish the Democrats from the Republicans, unless you think that no groups in the Republican Party have veto on policy proposals. I find that far fetched. McCain’s campaign is full of vague proposals, I suspect for similar reasons.
Do Republicans win elections because of their detailed policy proposals compared to Democratic vagueness?
Democrats were adrift in response to just about everything the Bush Admin did for quite some time. I don’t think we need special explanations for why this happened with some reform policies, we need general explanations for why this happened (almost) across the board.
Posted by: David Kaib | August 27, 2008 12:47 PM
#7 is dubious. Don’t taxes trickle down?
Posted by: Unit | August 27, 2008 10:14 PM
I really have to disagree with these twelve “rules.” While I would not disagree if someone said that this is what Democrats do to try to win elections, after looking at these rules, I would have to say that this is exactly the reason why Democrats DO lose elections.
This 2008 election has to be the easiest election for the Democrats to win. Bush’s approval rating is down in the twenties, our economy has gone past the toilet and is now heading into the sewage lines that run underground beneath the street, evidence is everywhere that we, as a country, are less safe than we were on September 11th, 2001, and it should be quite clear that it’s time for the power to change hands in Washington.
But the problem with the Democrats is that even though they talk about what they believe in, they do not STAND for what they believe in. Before they were elected in 2006, they said that they would begin impeachment proceedings against George W. Bush, but they were elected and then said that impeachment was “off the table.” There is plenty of evidence why Bush should be impeached—just ask Dennis Kucinich, who has submitted 35 articles of impeachment to Congress (there were only four articles submitted for Clinton ten years ago). They said in 2006 that they would refuse to fund ever-so-unpopular Iraq War unless it included timetables for withdrawal, saying that “the ‘rubber stamp’ days are over.” But when the Bush administration resisted, they found a rubber stamp, and we’re still stuck in this unpopular and unsuccessful war. Is it any wonder that the Democratically-controlled Congress has only a 9% approval rating, one that is far lower than Bush’s?
It’s for reasons like these twelve “rules” that describe why the Democrats have a knack for snatching defeat from the claws of victory. Many Americans are looking for people to stand up against the Republicans on issues that are important to them, but unlike the Republicans, the Democrats do not stand firm for what they stand for, they back down. You don’t see the Republicans doing that. This week’s Democratic Convention has been a great example. They spend their time talking about the economy and women’s rights issues, but ignore things like how the Bush administration has messed up foreign policy, how they have illegally trampled on the Bill of Rights through invasions of privacy and stepping on freedom of speech and of assembly. They don’t address the clear evidence of voter fraud that occurred both in 2000 and 2004. When Republicans spread lies about them, they don’t bounce back and refute those lies. In short, they follow what these twelve “steps” encourage, because these twelve rules serve their TRUE ultimate purpose: getting more campaign contributions from rich people and big corporations.
And what is the result? Really, really, really low voter turnout, because most of America is not satisfied with either major candidate, and knows that the other third-party candidates don’t stand a ghost of a chance. The Republican stands for things that most of those non-voters don’t find in their best interests, and the Democrat refuses to stand up for their best interests. Both are concerned primarily with raising obscene sums of money from rich and powerful interests that then tie up their hands for the next four years.
If the Democrats want to be successful this year, they need to lose their fear and they need to stand up for the big issues. They need to stand up to the Republican Party and not back down when the Republicans push them around. In short: they need to get back in touch with the average, working-class Americans in this country, or come this November, a lot of people will likely be going through the same sentiments that we went through eight years ago, and no one wants that to happen again.
It’s time for the Democrats to wake up, stand up, and get moving.
Posted by: Douglas Bell | August 28, 2008 08:11 PM
Clearly some readers missed the point of the post. It’s a satire, folks. Repeat after me: s-a-t-i-r-e.
Posted by: Lee Sigelman | August 30, 2008 06:52 PM