Victory for Two-Buck Chuck
Some friends were buying wine for their wedding from a discount beverage store in Berkeley, CA. So they invited a couple of us over and had a blind tasting of various wines. The best-rated wines were to be the ones they’d purchase for their wedding. Invariably, I picked the cheapest wines. Apparently, I am not alone:
Individuals who are unaware of the price do not derive more enjoyment from more expensive wine. In a sample of more than 6,000 blind tastings, we find that the correlation between price and overall rating is small and negative, suggesting that individuals on average enjoy more expensive wines slightly less. For individuals with wine training, however, we find indications of a positive relationship between price and enjoyment. Our results are robust to the inclusion of individual fixed effects, and are not driven by outliers: when omitting the top and bottom deciles of the price distribution, our qualitative results are strengthened, and the statistical significance is improved further. Our results indicate that both the prices of wines and wine recommendations by experts may be poor guides for non-expert wine consumers.
Here is the paper.
[Hat tip to Freakonomics. Be sure to read Steven Levitt’s personal anecdote.]
[ADDENDUM: See Seth Roberts’ explanation for the behavior of Levitt’s colleagues.]
Comments
Calvin Trillin’s “Feeding a Yen” includes an interesting Chapter 9 “The Red and the White” on certain testings of such wines.
Posted by: Shag from Brookline | July 16, 2008 03:37 PM
Is the conclusion basically, “people with unsophisticated tastes like unsophisticated things?” That’s not too surprising, is it? It’s apparently true of beer and I’d guess it’s probably true of chocolate, music, cheeseburgers, ice cream, french fries, whiskey, movies, and so on. But there might be good reasons to refine one’s tastes, and it seems from the section quoted above that if one bothers to refine them one can tell the difference. (There’s hardly a perfect correlation between price a quality in wine, though, just as with these other things, so there’s some worry about what’s being looked for or measured, too.)
Posted by: matt | July 16, 2008 04:59 PM
did they do a comparison where they let people know the price (sometimes using an incorrect price) and asked for a rating
Posted by: BillCinSD | July 16, 2008 05:53 PM
When an acquaintance tells me he/she was at a wine tasting, I ask “Tell the truth, do you really spit it out?” When someone asks me to taste a wine he/she if obviously proud of, I go through the sniffing, swirling, sipping, etc, and then volunteer: “Tutti but not fruitti.” And if I don’t gag, I swallow.
Posted by: Shag from Brookline | July 17, 2008 01:27 PM
is the key takeaway that some people don’t know as much about wine as they thought, or that cheap wine is generally just as good as expensive wine?
if the former, then sure. but it seems like there is a tendency to shift into implying the latter. and if that was really the point, then the design is flawed, no? because the test is really for the ability to detect expensive wines, not good ones, correct? and yet, the inability to do so seems to be read as an indication of the pointlessness in trying to detect good wine. but does this conclusion not assume the very identification between price and quality that is being called into question?
penultimate line, i’ve had good wine and not so good wine. more expensive wine is not always good, and cheap not always bad. but the best i’ve ever had was quite expensive, and the worst was quite cheap. and there is generally some correlation.
although i also agree that ignorance is bliss. if you think the cheap stuff is better, why try and “correct” that perception? as it is, you’ll be happy for less $$. just know that i’m laughing at you, john. apparently you needed to spend more time at cal.
Posted by: Joel | July 17, 2008 01:44 PM
What’s the causal effect for experts? Does experience with drinking wine teach you that more expensive ones taste “better”? Or do people with more sophisticated palates self-select into the expert group?
Posted by: Seth Masket | July 17, 2008 03:11 PM
This is nothing more than New Coke beating Coke in taste test trials. It’s easy to make sweet and tasty but simple wine for $10.
Expensive wine is usually built to be cellared and is more likely to be tannic (which dries out the mouth) and have flavors beyond ripe fruit which are not as immediately likable.
Lesser wines are best upon opening and then deteriorate; better wines, when young, tend to improve with several hours or more exposure to air, which brings the wine to being closer to what it might taste like after years of cellaring. The more complex wines change over time and thus drinking an entire bottle is entirely different than comparing a first sip. Thus, many outstanding, expensive, high scoring wines are not appropriate for a wedding whatsover, and other wines won’t show well unless the caterers know how to serve.
None of this is to say that there aren’t poor to average wines with high price tags and surprisingly great wines at reasonable prices. Of course there are.
Experience drinking and reflecting on wine will change most people’s tastes over time. Now, my favorite characteristic of white wines is minerality; for Syrah, I enjoy some smoke and pepper. I doubt those components are valued by more casual drinkers. As the study said,
“Our results indicate that both the prices of wines and wine recommendations by experts may be poor guides for non-expert wine consumers.”
Yup. Robert Parker’s reviews of mid-priced wines cause consternation in the wine world because he likes and recommends big sweet fruit bombs that are also immediately likable by the general public, which many winos find syrupy and boring. However, most of his 95+ ratings, or other wine reviewers like Steven Tanzer that are primarily written for collectors, probably aren’t likable, especially if served improperly, to most people. Hopefully your local wine merchant knows what questions to ask and can navigate you to wines you’ll like regardless of score or price.
Posted by: ScottS | July 18, 2008 04:33 PM