Are Jews Drifting to the Right?
That’s what Jodi Kantor says in the New York Times:
But in recent presidential elections, Jews have drifted somewhat to the right.
Really? I took the state-level exit polls for each presidential election from 1988-2004 and combined them into one big file for each election year. This produces relatively large samples of Jewish voters (~1,000 each year). Here is the percentage of Jewish voters choosing the Democratic candidate:
Looks like a leftward drift. In 1988, 71% of Jewish voters supported Dukakis. In 2004, 79% supported Kerry. And you don’t even have to crunch the data. I typed “jewish vote” into Google and the very first link told me the same thing.1
Kantor is not wrong about her central thesis, although she fails to cite any systematic data to prove it: Obama’s current support among Jewish Americans is lower than that of these past Democratic candidates. Since Kantor doesn’t present any polling data about an Obama-McCain match-up, I went and found some. Just like before, it was hard: I typed “poll jew obama” into Google. Here was the first hit, a poll cited in the May 9th edition of the Jerusalem Post:
A new Gallup survey found that 61% of Jewish voters prefer Obama to McCain, who got 32% of the Jewish support.
That’s how you write a story about what voters think. Don’t make vague claims about recent history, such as the “rightward shift,” without backing it up. And then, if you really want to make the case, don’t only talk to a handful of people in Boynton Beach and Boca Raton. Find some hard evidence. Google will even do it for you.
ADDENDUM: See Andrew Gelman’s post with data from the National Election Study.
[1] This webpage’s data doesn’t precisely match mine, perhaps because they are using the (smaller) national exit poll file rather than the merged state-level files that I use. In fact, they find that the percent of Jews supporting Dukakis in 1988 is even lower (64%); the difference may arise because there wasn’t a separate exit poll in every state that year and so my combined state file is missing some data. In any case, the “rightward shift” is not plausible. In fact, if anything, the leftward shift is larger, especially if you compare 1988-2004 to earlier elections in the 1970 and 1980s.
Comments
Not that I expect this was what she meant, but by way of playing devil's advocate, is democrat/republican candidate vote share generally used in the study of recent american politics as a direct proxy for left/right dimensions?
Posted by: Joel | May 22, 2008 10:08 PM
Gore-Lieberman got LESS Jewish votes in 2000 then the party got in 1996 and 2004?
Posted by: j from Wpg | May 23, 2008 02:05 AM
You might want to compare the Jewish vote with the overall vote. The question may be whether Jews have become less exceptional in their voting patterns since 1988.
Posted by: Matt Stevens | May 23, 2008 11:01 AM
What happens if we add Gore+Nader voters to 2000? Is NES sensitive enough to estimate Jewish Naderites?
Posted by: Adam | May 23, 2008 04:42 PM
Look at the numbers you bragged that you didn't have to "crunch the data"
92 Bush - 11%
96 Dole - 16%
00 Bush - 19%
04 Bush - 24%
This is an "implausible" rightward shift? Republican presidential candidates increased their share of the Jewish vote by 218% in four election cycles and that's "implausible"?
Posted by: Campesino | May 23, 2008 05:00 PM
Joel: Party is only a proxy, although it's become a better one over time. There's no increase in the percent of Jews who call themselves "conservative" either.
J from Wpg: The change from 1996 to 2000 isn't really substantively meaningful. However, it is perhaps surprising that the trend didn't increase.
Matt: See my addendum link to Gelman's post. He has a figure that does this.
Adam: In 2000, including Nader would increase the figure by 3%.
Campesino: The percent of Jews voting Republican is depressed in 1992 and 1996 because Perot siphoned off some support. That makes the "increase" look larger than it really is. Moreover, you left off 1988, when 35% of Jews voted for Bush and only 67% voted for Dukakis. And 1984, when 31% voted for Reagan and only 64% voted for Mondale. If anything, Jewish support for Democratic candidates is higher now than in these earlier elections. You have to read the data very selectively to buttress Kantor's argument. More generally, if you look even further back in time, and you look at the Gelman graph in the post I link to in the addendum, you'll see no overall secular trend. There isn't much of a shift, period.
Posted by: John Sides | May 23, 2008 05:49 PM
The bottom line is the NYT said:
"But in recent presidential elections, Jews have drifted somewhat to the right."
The numbers you so approvingly cite show that in the last 4 cycles - wouldn't you say the last 16 years is recent? - the Republicans have greatly improved their position with Jewish voters. The numbers support Kantor, not you.
In 1992 Clinton got 80% of the Jewish vote. In 2004 Kerry got 76%. Republicans gaining 13% of the Jewish vote while Democrats losing 4% in the same period isn't a "leftward" drift to a disinterested observer.
If you want to argue that it's irrelevant because levels of Jewish support for the GOP in the past were much higher, you might be right but that's a different argument, irrelevant to Kantor's point.
The thrust point of Kantor's article is that Republicans have been winning back their share of the Jewish vote recently and look to increase it again this year with unease over Obama. You even cite that poll showing McCain at 32% that supports Kantor.
I'd have to say that you're the one reading data very selectively in this case
Posted by: Campesino | May 23, 2008 07:26 PM
All data is read selectively and often tells you nothing.
Posted by: Lewis Beyman | May 23, 2008 11:54 PM
Campesino,
That we can disagree actually buttresses my original point: Kantor needs to cite evidence to back up her claim. Without it, we don't really know what she means by "in recent presidential elections, Jews have drifted somewhat to the right."
To me, that phrase means "the proportion of Jewish voters supporting the Democratic presidential candidate is decreasing, and the proportion supporting the Republican presidential candidate is increasing." That fits with the overall thrust of her article, which is about the challenges the likely Democratic nominee faces with Jewish voters. But the evidence suggests that Jewish voters have maintained their same level of support for the Democratic candidate in the 1992-2004 elections, perhaps increasing slightly according to my figures. In any case, there's no meaningful decrease in support. This level of support is actually higher than in the 1980s.
Meanwhile, in the last two elections the Republicans have gained back some voters that defected to Perot in 1992 and 1996. But they're not taking votes away from the Democrats. Moreover, they are not doing as well as they did in the 1980s.
To me, it's difficult to sustain the notion -- implied by Kantor -- that the Democratic Party has been doing less well among Jewish voters.
Obama's situation is clearly different. I cited that poll not to illustrate any secular rightward shift but to provide hard data for her depiction of Obama and Jewish voters. My complaint with Kantor there is not that she misrepresents the challenges facing Obama with Jewish voters, it's that she failed to provide any hard data, choosing instead to interview a handful of people. That's not an appropriate means to gauge the views of voters. Some kind of systematic evidence is necessary. Moreover, it was easily available on Google. The irony in this case is that the available evidence would actually have strengthened her case.
Thanks for your comments.
Posted by: John Sides | May 24, 2008 08:43 AM
Kantor's article talks mainly about Florida Jews. What these elderly Jews like about McCain:
he is white. he too is old. he is not :"tainted" by the right with slurs about Obama's anti-Israel pro-Hamas "position."
Lieberman won in Ct not because he is Jewish but because the GOP folks voted against their own candidate for Lieberman--a guy who hased far right.
Posted by: fred lapides | May 24, 2008 10:02 AM
Meanwhile, in the last two elections the Republicans have gained back some voters that defected to Perot in 1992 and 1996. But they're not taking votes away from the Democrats.
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Huh?
2000
Bush 19%
Gore 79%
Nader 1%
2004
Bush 24%
Kerry 76%
Nader
Then who is the GOP taking them from? Do you think Nader voters switched to Bush?
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My complaint with Kantor there is not that she misrepresents the challenges facing Obama with Jewish voters, it's that she failed to provide any hard data, choosing instead to interview a handful of people. That's not an appropriate means to gauge the views of voters.
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One of the complaints many of us have of the newspaper business. When will reporters discover Google?
Posted by: Campesino | May 27, 2008 10:46 AM
Bottom line: everything depends on what your baseline is.
The facts are: Jews shifted sharply away from the Republicans in the Clinton elections. Then they moved back towards the Republicans in the Bush elections- but not by enough to make up for the losses caused by Bush the Elder.
So if you are comparing the Jewish Republican vote to the Clinton elections, there is a pronounced rightward shift.
On the other hand, if you are comparing the Jewish Republican vote to any election between 1972 and 1988, there has been a leftward shift.
So in a way, both sides are right- and wrong.
Posted by: Mike | May 28, 2008 11:35 PM