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If the primaries (and caucuses) were the general election...

Let’s assume that the turnout in the general election will be proportional to the turnout in the primaries and caucuses. (I know a big assumption. For example, the total turnout in 2004 for Bush and Kerry in NY was around 7.3 million while the turnout in the 2008 NY primaries for Dems and Reps was 2.4 million. There are other assumptions, such as party only primaries, etc. but let’s suspend reality for a second.)

What would the electoral count look like so far? I count 25 states where both Dems and Reps have had either primaries or caucuses. If we just tally up the total turnout for each side, Dems have won 20 of the 25 states. For example, in CA, the Dem candidates received 4 million votes, and Reps 2.3 million. Give the Dems 55 electoral votes. That translates to 240 out of the 311 electoral votes. So the Dems only need 30 more with 25 more states. Looking like a blowout…but of course this is far from reality.

*** The twenty five states are: AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA IL IA MA MI MN MO NV NH NJ NY ND OK SC TN UT. The five won by Reps are: AL AK AZ FL MI (recall Clinton was the only real name on the ballot in MI so that probably depressed turnout for the Dems).

Posted by David Park on February 12, 2008 02:59 PM |

Comments

Does anyone really believe that the Dems will win GA, ND, SC, TN, or UT in the general election, though?

Posted by: Mike | February 12, 2008 05:48 PM

Mike

You could add OK there as well. I would say OK and those states that you mentioned are a far reach for the Dems. If we move them over to the Rep column, then the Dems will have 196 out of the 311. We could reasonably put FL and MI in the Dem column, if so that would give the Dems 240 again.

Posted by: David K. Park | February 12, 2008 08:50 PM

I think what bothers me the most about the measure is the underlying environment. Bush is HATED. The number of people who strongly disapprove of his job is almost a majority (depends on poll, but it’s awful close to 50%). That motivates Dems to show up in the primaries. You almost have a perfect storm for differential primary turnout (I say “almost” because the GOP featured a real contest for a while there, giving GOP voters a reason to show up).

I like to start my EC calculus from the 2004 results. I can see Dem pickups in OH, FL, MO, VA, AR, AZ, CO, IA, NM, or NV. I can envision (though it’s tougher) GOP pickups in NH, WI and PA. That listing alone favors the Dems.

Posted by: Matt Jarvis | February 13, 2008 01:32 PM