Does Voting by Mail Increase Participation?
Would holding elections by mail increase voter turnout? Many electoral reform advocates predict that mail ballot elections will boost participation, basing their prediction on the high turnout rate among absentee voters and on the rise in voter turnout after Oregon switched to voting by mail. However, selection problems inherent to studies of absentee voters and Oregon give us important reasons to doubt whether their results would extend to more general applications of voting by mail. In this paper, we isolate the effects of voting in mail ballot elections by taking advantage of a natural experiment in which voters are assigned in a nearly random process to cast their ballots by mail. We use matching methods to ensure that, in our analysis, the demographic characteristics of these voters mirror those of polling-place voters who take part in the same elections. Drawing on data from a large sample of California counties in two general elections, we find that voting by mail does not deliver on the promise of greater participation in general elections. In fact, voters who are assigned to vote by mail turn out at lower rates than those who are sent to a polling place. Analysis of a sample of local special elections, by contrast, indicates that voting by mail can increase turnout in these otherwise low-participation contests.
That is a bit of cold water from Thad Kousser and Megan Mullin. The paper is here or here (gated). The natural near-experiment they analyze is quite neat.
Maybe California should have tried cotton candy instead.
Comments
It's not a matter of convenience. People are civically involved or not. It has more to do with whether or not they think it matters to them, personally, though some do see it as a civic duty. Singapore forces people to vote under threat of imprisonment. Incentives might work, but you have different incentives for different demographics. If you want Democrat voters to show up, offer money.
Posted by: Dr. Troy Camplin | November 30, 2007 12:10 PM
Has anyone looked into the impact of mail-in ballots on political socialization? I remember going with my parents as a kid to vote. It was fun. With mail-in ballots, parents vote when they pay the bills -- after the kids are in bed. Could this make a difference in the long run?
Posted by: Seth Masket | December 1, 2007 03:52 PM
Dr. Camplin: I do agree that the potential effect for incentives is fairly circumscribed, especially because turnout is so habitual. And your other point -- that different kinds of incentives might work for different groups of people -- deserves further attention. I think there is less work on that question.
Seth: I wonder about socialization as well. I often ask students about their first political memory and many of them recollect going with their parents to vote, or to a political event of some kind.
Posted by: John Sides | December 3, 2007 07:19 PM